{ "sessionId": "cmudgb7zk000eckiib7wk35b8", "slug": "the-numbers-nobody-publishes", "slides": [ { "order": 1, "title": "The numbers nobody publishes — scope and sources", "bullets": [ "Presentation uses state regulatory filings and platform disclosures", "Figures current as of September 21, 2026 (sources: [S3], [S9])" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Title: The numbers nobody publishes — scope and sources. Two bullets: first states the presentation uses state regulatory filings and platform disclosures. Second states figures are current as of September 21, 2026 and cites sources [S3] and [S9].", "targetSeconds": 30, "script": "1 — I draw on state regulatory filings and platform disclosures; the figures I use are current as of September 21, 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a", "e848e85d-eece-4665-97db-569f0adfba98", "a0356ef5-ebc2-4163-be7f-e67783b136cd", "25841a07-2aa5-410f-bf7f-12097bbd5249" ] }, { "order": 2, "title": "Why primary sources matter", "bullets": [ "Measured = mandatory filings or audited statements (with date)", "Estimates = extrapolations or constructed denominators", "Implication: measured figures are defensible; estimates need assumptions" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Explains why primary sources matter. Bullets define 'measured' as mandatory filings or audited statements with a date, 'estimates' as extrapolations or constructed denominators, and notes that measured figures are defensible while estimates require assumptions. Source: [S8].", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "2 — Measured versus estimated: a measured figure comes from a mandatory filing or audited statement with an as-of date; an estimate is a constructed or extrapolated number — this distinction and its implications are drawn from Gaming Market Research guidance as of September 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "4371d4f8-364f-4ae1-82b4-073b1acf4430", "3146bf71-157d-443d-ba0b-752e0e1bb7e4", "fffc45e1-0bb5-4fde-a5b9-9d97f0b9dfd5" ] }, { "order": 3, "title": "What this research covers — and doesn't", "bullets": [ "Included jurisdictions: MN, IN, NH, ND, OH, KY, MD (license lists include VA, AK, Ontario)", "Excluded: tribal e-tab, sweepstakes platforms, offshore totals" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Lists coverage boundaries. Bullet one names included jurisdictions: Minnesota, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Kentucky, Maryland; also tracks license lists for Virginia, Alaska, and Ontario. Bullet two notes excluded segments: tribal e-tab, sweepstakes platforms, and offshore platform totals. Sources: [S9], [S5], [S1]; as of September 21, 2026.", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "3 — Coverage boundaries: this research includes primary-source data for Minnesota, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Kentucky, and Maryland, and tracks license lists for Virginia, Alaska, and Ontario; it excludes tribal e‑tab, sweepstakes platforms, and offshore platform totals, per the coverage statement dated September 21, 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "e848e85d-eece-4665-97db-569f0adfba98", "3146bf71-157d-443d-ba0b-752e0e1bb7e4", "a0356ef5-ebc2-4163-be7f-e67783b136cd", "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a", "4e6bb2a2-f9f3-437e-9c7f-7566f7bfa979" ] }, { "order": 4, "title": "Charitable gaming: no single national total", "bullets": [ "No single national total exists in primary sources", "We use state-level measured totals, not a composite national estimate" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "States that there is no single national charitable gaming total in primary sources. Bullet one notes absence of a national total. Bullet two says the talk uses state-level measured totals rather than a composite national estimate. Source: [S9], as of September 21, 2026.", "targetSeconds": 45, "script": "4 — There is no single national charitable gaming total in the primary sources; I therefore present state‑level measured totals rather than a composite national estimate, as noted in our coverage note dated September 21, 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "e848e85d-eece-4665-97db-569f0adfba98", "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a", "25841a07-2aa5-410f-bf7f-12097bbd5249" ] }, { "order": 5, "title": "Minnesota: measured scale example", "bullets": [ "$4.91 billion — Minnesota FY2025 charitable gambling gross receipts", "Measured figure from Minnesota Gambling Control Board (FY2025)" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Presents Minnesota example: $4.91 billion in Minnesota FY2025 charitable gambling gross receipts. Notes this is a measured figure from the Minnesota Gambling Control Board and is for FY2025 (source: [S13], as of FY2025 / September 2026).", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "5 — Minnesota example: $4.91 billion is Minnesota’s FY2025 charitable gambling gross receipts as reported by the Minnesota Gambling Control Board; that is a measured, filed figure covering the defined fiscal year (MGCB FY2025 / September 2026).", "sourceReferences": [ "a423a0ee-9050-482a-8f28-4715589df6db", "3146bf71-157d-443d-ba0b-752e0e1bb7e4", "852bbd8a-3e0b-4ddf-a236-ff730a9ba5b6" ] }, { "order": 6, "title": "Indiana: rapid e-tab scale-up (quarterly)", "bullets": [ "$75.6 million — e-tab gross receipts, Q1 2026", "2,562 machines at 509 locations (Indiana IGC Q1 2026)" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Shows Indiana quarterly example: $75.6 million e-tab gross receipts in Q1 2026, from 2,562 machines at 509 locations. Source is the Indiana Gaming Commission Q1 2026 report (measured figure).", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "6 — Indiana e‑tabs Q1 2026: $75.6 million in e‑tab gross receipts from 2,562 machines at 509 licensed locations — a measured, quarterly filing reported by the Indiana Gaming Commission in Q1 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "25841a07-2aa5-410f-bf7f-12097bbd5249", "fffc45e1-0bb5-4fde-a5b9-9d97f0b9dfd5" ] }, { "order": 7, "title": "New Hampshire: format shift within a market", "bullets": [ "$251.7 million — total revenue H1 2026 (measured)", "Video lottery terminals = 52% of revenue in H1 2026" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "New Hampshire example: $251.7 million total revenue for H1 2026, with video lottery terminals accounting for 52% of revenue. Source: New Hampshire Lottery Commission H1 2026 release (measured figure).", "targetSeconds": 45, "script": "7 — New Hampshire H1 2026: $251.7 million total charitable gaming revenue for H1 2026, with video lottery terminals making up 52 percent of that revenue — reported by the New Hampshire Lottery Commission H1 2026 release (measured figure).", "sourceReferences": [ "25841a07-2aa5-410f-bf7f-12097bbd5249" ] }, { "order": 8, "title": "Maryland and CEIB developments", "bullets": [ "CEIB tracked by MLGCC; expanded card limit effective July 1, 2026", "Change expected to increase per-session revenue (regulatory change)" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Maryland CEIB updates: the program is tracked by the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission. The card limit expanded effective July 1, 2026. The change is expected to increase per-session revenue. Source: [S13], July 1, 2026 / September 2026.", "targetSeconds": 45, "script": "8 — Maryland CEIB: the program is tracked by the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission and an expansion of the per‑player card limit to 100 took effect July 1, 2026; the regulatory change is expected to increase per‑session revenue (MLGCC reporting as of July 1, 2026 / Sept 2026).", "sourceReferences": [ "a423a0ee-9050-482a-8f28-4715589df6db", "4da501a1-b93d-4933-98a1-37cd4fcc25f6" ] }, { "order": 9, "title": "What manufacturers publish (public companies)", "bullets": [ "Light & Wonder: 12,550 charitable units reported Q2 2026", "Pollard Banknote: Q2 2026 eTabs revenue disclosed (in CA$)" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Manufacturers public disclosures: Light & Wonder reported 12,550 charitable units in Q2 2026. Pollard Banknote disclosed Q2 2026 eTabs revenue in Canadian dollars. Sources: LNW earnings Aug 4, 2026 and Pollard call Aug 13, 2026 (measured company disclosures).", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "9 — Manufacturer disclosures: Light & Wonder reported 12,550 charitable units in Q2 2026 and Pollard Banknote disclosed Q2 2026 eTabs revenue in Canadian dollars; those are company disclosures in public earnings releases (LNW Aug 4, 2026; Pollard Aug 13, 2026).", "sourceReferences": [ "c4e128a8-0772-4c0d-bf7d-a2189565357e", "43be42e4-8641-4529-9a78-767954656a61", "4da501a1-b93d-4933-98a1-37cd4fcc25f6" ] }, { "order": 10, "title": "Manufacturer landscape and consolidation", "bullets": [ "Grover Gaming acquisition consolidated LNW unit leadership (mid-2025)", "Market concentration visible in public earnings disclosures" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Notes consolidation: Light & Wonder's acquisition of Grover Gaming in mid-2025 consolidated its unit leadership. Market concentration is visible in public earnings disclosures (source: [S14], as of Q2 2026 reporting).", "targetSeconds": 45, "script": "10 — Consolidation: Light & Wonder’s mid‑2025 acquisition of Grover Gaming consolidated unit leadership, a fact the company disclosed in its Q2 2026 earnings narrative and prior filings; this is evident in public company reporting as of Q2 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "c4e128a8-0772-4c0d-bf7d-a2189565357e", "4da501a1-b93d-4933-98a1-37cd4fcc25f6" ] }, { "order": 11, "title": "Prediction markets: regulatory sources and cadence", "bullets": [ "Primary sources: CFTC press releases and court records", "Tracker updated weekly; legal status can change rapidly" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Explains prediction markets' primary sources: CFTC press releases and court records. Notes the tracker is updated weekly because legal status can change on a timeline of days to weeks. Sources: [S7] and [S4], as of September 2026.", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "11 — Prediction markets sources and cadence: primary sources are CFTC press releases, DCM application records, and court dockets; Gaming Market Research updates its prediction‑market tracker weekly because legal status can change rapidly (tracker practice noted September 2026).", "sourceReferences": [ "bff4a7e0-9852-4dc8-a46c-8201a6e17d4f", "4e6bb2a2-f9f3-437e-9c7f-7566f7bfa979", "199dbdda-7c2a-4a74-ab22-819735f0a918", "654efb6f-c117-4fd3-98e5-fc7f506f36c4" ] }, { "order": 12, "title": "Polymarket: platform vs regulatory figures", "bullets": [ "Polymarket global volume = platform disclosure, not CFTC filing", "QCX LLC CFTC Amended Order of Designation: Nov 25, 2025 (US entity)" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Describes Polymarket distinction: the global trading volume Polymarket publicizes is a platform disclosure and not equivalent to US-only CFTC filings. Notes QCX LLC (Polymarket's US entity) received a CFTC Amended Order of Designation on November 25, 2025. Source: [S1], Nov 25, 2025 / Sept 2026.", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "12 — Polymarket note: Polymarket’s platform‑disclosed global trading volume is a platform figure and distinct from CFTC‑reported US filings; Polymarket’s US entity QCX LLC received a CFTC Amended Order of Designation on November 25, 2025 — that order and the distinction between platform disclosures and regulatory filings are in our coverage notes (Nov 25, 2025 / Sept 2026).", "sourceReferences": [ "a0356ef5-ebc2-4163-be7f-e67783b136cd", "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a" ] }, { "order": 13, "title": "Where visible numbers diverge from reality", "bullets": [ "Many states don't break out e-tab revenue separately", "Tribal and sweepstakes segments operate outside mandatory reporting" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Highlights gaps: some states do not break out e-tab revenue; tribal operations and sweepstakes platforms are outside mandatory reporting. These gaps create divergence between visible numbers and actual market activity. Sources: [S5], [S1], as of September 2026.", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "13 — Where visible numbers diverge: many states do not break out e‑tab revenue separately; tribal electronic operations and sweepstakes platforms operate outside these mandatory disclosures — those gaps are documented in our coverage and gaps notes dated September 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "3146bf71-157d-443d-ba0b-752e0e1bb7e4", "a0356ef5-ebc2-4163-be7f-e67783b136cd", "4e6bb2a2-f9f3-437e-9c7f-7566f7bfa979", "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a" ] }, { "order": 14, "title": "Practical takeaway: how to read any gaming figure", "bullets": [ "Ask: number, exact source document, as-of date", "Also ask: measured or estimate, jurisdictions included" ], "imageUrl": null, "altText": "Gives a checklist: ask for the number, the exact source document, the as-of date, whether the figure is measured or an estimate, and which jurisdictions are included. Guidance drawn from [S3] and [S8], as of September 2026.", "targetSeconds": 60, "script": "14 — Practical checklist: when you see any gaming figure, ask for the number, the exact source document, the as‑of date, whether it’s measured or an estimate, and which jurisdictions are included — guidance drawn from our methodology notes as of September 2026.", "sourceReferences": [ "576566d2-7e35-4393-9bf2-910f64e3849a", "4371d4f8-364f-4ae1-82b4-073b1acf4430", "3146bf71-157d-443d-ba0b-752e0e1bb7e4", "bff4a7e0-9852-4dc8-a46c-8201a6e17d4f", "fffc45e1-0bb5-4fde-a5b9-9d97f0b9dfd5" ] } ] }